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Japan’s Prime Minister Cautions: “Ukraine’s Reality Today May Be East Asia’s Tomorrow

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba issued a stark warning in his inaugural policy address, cautioning that “today’s Ukraine could very well become tomorrow’s East Asia.” Alongside this geopolitical concern, he underscored Japan’s low birth rate as a “silent emergency” that demands urgent attention.

“Many worry that the perilous scenario unfolding in Ukraine might be a precursor to what could transpire in East Asia,” Ishiba articulated to the Japanese parliament. “Why, indeed, did deterrence fail in Ukraine?” the 67-year-old leader, who previously served as defense minister, queried. His remarks alluded to mounting international tensions, with divisions and conflict on the rise, particularly in the Middle East.

Although Ishiba did not directly mention China, his comments seemed to point to the fraying ties between Tokyo and Beijing, as China amplifies its military presence in contested regions across East Asia. Among Japan’s foremost concerns is Taiwan, an island that China claims as its own and has never ruled out forcibly reclaiming.

Japan’s recent actions, including plans for a major hike in defense spending and strengthened security alliances with the U.S., the Philippines, and South Korea, have further strained relations with China. In a bold move, Japan sailed a warship through the Taiwan Strait for the first time, following an unprecedented incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into Japanese airspace just weeks earlier.

In addressing these mounting tensions, Ishiba has also voiced support for the establishment of a NATO-like regional defense coalition. He warned earlier this week that Asia faces its most precarious security situation since World War II, signaling a potentially perilous future for the region.

Japan’s Demographic Conundrum

Amid these geopolitical warnings, Ishiba also sounded the alarm over Japan’s demographic challenges. With a rapidly aging populace and one of the lowest birth rates among developed nations, the country faces a looming population crisis. Japan’s birth rate currently sits at 1.2—far below the 2.1 needed to sustain its population—making it the world’s second-oldest population after Monaco, according to World Bank data.

On Friday, Ishiba described this demographic dilemma as a “silent emergency,” vowing to introduce new policies to support working families, including more flexible work arrangements to encourage parenthood.

Minimum Wage and Economic Stimulus

Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, struggled to maintain public favor due to various scandals and a harsh inflationary climate that eroded wages in the world’s fourth-largest economy. Ishiba aims to reverse this economic tide by championing new monetary stimulus measures to bolster local governments and lower-income households.

In a bold economic move, he set his sights on raising the national minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($10.20) per hour within the next decade—a 43 percent increase from the current 1,050 yen. Ishiba’s stance on monetary policy, particularly his support for the Bank of Japan’s gradual exit from ultra-loose policies, sent the yen surging last week. However, his reluctance to endorse further interest rate hikes dampened that momentum, weakening the currency.

As of Friday afternoon, the yen traded at 146.02 to the U.S. dollar, recovering slightly from earlier lows.

Crisis in Imperial Succession

In a final note, Ishiba addressed a sensitive topic that has long stirred debate: the question of imperial succession. With only one young male heir—Prince Hisahito, the 18-year-old nephew of Emperor Naruhito—the imperial family faces a demographic crisis of its own. The law, which mandates male-only succession, has barred women from ascending the throne. Even Naruhito’s daughter, Princess Aiko, is ineligible due to these entrenched rules.

Former princess Mako Komuro’s marriage to a commoner in 2021 further illustrated the challenges surrounding the imperial family’s future, as royal women are required to relinquish their titles upon marrying non-royalty. With only a handful of male heirs remaining, lawmakers began discussing the potential relaxation of these rigid succession laws in May. A recent Kyodo News poll indicated overwhelming public support—nearly 90 percent—for female succession.

“Ensuring a stable line of royal succession is of paramount importance,” Ishiba stressed. “We must actively engage in this debate to stabilize the number of Imperial Family members, a matter of urgent significance.”

In his wide-ranging speech, Ishiba deftly navigated both Japan’s internal challenges and its growing geopolitical anxieties, signaling his readiness to confront the country’s most pressing issues head-on.