In a surprising turn of events, the far-right National Rally, despite losing a parliamentary election it was expected to dominate, has emerged as a key political force in France. Michel Barnier’s nomination as prime minister has positioned the party, led by Marine Le Pen, as the decisive factor in shaping the next government.
Tensions Behind the Scenes
Marine Le Pen played a crucial role in this week’s intense political negotiations. Xavier Bertrand, a prominent conservative, initially appeared as the leading candidate for prime minister after gaining center-right support. However, Macron’s outreach to Le Pen regarding Bertrand’s candidacy sparked tension. The animosity between Le Pen and Bertrand stems from past political clashes, particularly Bertrand’s victory over Le Pen in the Hauts-de-France regional race.
The National Rally made it clear they would reject any government led by Bertrand, a scenario Macron couldn’t afford. With the left likely to back the far right in undermining Bertrand, his government would have been at risk of collapsing from the start. As a result, Bertrand was sidelined, and Barnier was put forward as a compromise candidate on Thursday.
Barnier’s Challenge
Barnier now faces the difficult task of balancing the demands of his center-right and centrist supporters while also appeasing the far right, which is wary of potential budget cuts to address France’s growing debt. Marine Le Pen cautiously welcomed Barnier’s appointment, noting that he met her party’s demand for a leader willing to engage with all political forces, including the National Rally.
Pollster Bruno Jeanbart observed that while the far right could still attempt to bring down Barnier’s government, it may not be in their best interest to do so immediately. With the next presidential election on the horizon, Le Pen’s party may choose to let the current government function, recognizing the challenges of running a country without first winning the presidency.
Macron’s Uneasy Gamble
Macron’s cooperation with the National Rally has sparked discomfort among his allies. After campaigning to keep extremist parties out of power, he now finds himself dependent on the far right to stabilize the government. Centrist lawmakers voiced concern that Barnier’s fate is effectively in the hands of the National Rally, a departure from the traditional “Republican front” aimed at blocking far-right influence in France.
Meanwhile, the left has struggled to present a united front. Despite its strong showing in the European elections, internal divisions led to a failed bid by the New Popular Front to nominate Lucie Castets as prime minister. Macron rejected her candidacy, predicting it wouldn’t survive a confidence vote in the divided National Assembly. This left Barnier, a figure leaning further to the right, as Macron’s best hope for ensuring the stability of his government.